In the first half of this year, the domestic output of refined zinc is increasing, but it is still far from the previous year. What are the reasons for this? Shaanxi Environmental Protection Integration Factory will show you!
1、 Change in raw material supply structure
In 2017, the raw material procurement structure of the smelter has changed. Due to the increased environmental protection, the shutdown of some rotary kilns in the north has reduced the supply of regeneration, and the concentration of zinc oxide enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and other places, the procurement competition of renewable raw materials is relatively fierce. Many factors have led to the gradual reduction of the proportion of secondary materials used by smelters. Among them, it is obvious for large smelters to reduce the proportion of recycling. Since the beginning of this year, some smelters and zinc oxide enterprises have reported that they are short of secondary materials and difficult to purchase. In the current environment of severe environmental protection, secondary materials are still difficult to ease.
According to the survey statistics, in addition to mineral powder, the supply of other raw materials has decreased by nearly 300000, which makes domestic smelters have to increase their dependence on foreign ores. However, the current zinc price and processing fees are hard for smelters. It is good for smelters to maintain their original production capacity, and they will be more cautious about the increase of production capacity.
2、 Smelter profits continue to decline
Whether domestic or imported, the processing fee has been at a historical low level for a long time* Recently, I heard that different regions have the idea of increasing processing fees. A few days ago, 48 domestic smelters held a collective meeting, which also had the purpose of paying processing fees. However, the adjustment of processing costs from low to high also requires a time process, which is far from hydrolysis, and it is still difficult to quickly solve the problems of smelters in a short time.
This long-term low level of processing fee, coupled with the continuous decline in zinc prices, has kept the cost of the smelter at a high level, and the profit has continued to decline, even resulting in losses. Compared with the profits of mines, the profits of smelters are also far behind. At present, the main profits are in the mining sector, while the smelter is on the edge of the cost line or even loss for a long time, which will greatly reduce the enthusiasm of the smelter for production, which directly leads to the inhibition of domestic zinc ingot output and new capacity.
3、 Environmental protection continues to become stricter
Last year, environmental protection has closed a large number of mines in China, and mining enterprises in Huayuan have not yet resumed production. Since the beginning of this year, environmental protection policies have been proposed for both upstream and downstream, and actions such as "looking back" on environmental protection show that this year's environmental protection efforts will only be greater. In addition, the inspection and treatment of environmental problems involving acid and waste residue are also ongoing. Among them, Luoping Smelter stopped production in July due to environmental problems, and the time of resumption of production is to be determined. Looking at the environmental protection situation this year, the situation faced by zinc smelters will be more severe this year.
To sum up, many factors, such as raw materials, profits and environmental protection, have made the life of zinc smelters more difficult this year, which has restrained the domestic refining zinc output. In the second half of the year, will these problems be alleviated? Will the capacity be released?
First, raw materials. With the increase of overseas mines, the supply of domestic demand can be gradually increased; However, the reduction of secondary materials cannot achieve a restorative growth in the past two years.
Secondly, in terms of profits. As domestic processing fees have shown signs of loosening, the processing fees of smelters are expected to improve. However, due to the overall tight funding this year, the capital cost of the smelter is relatively high, and it still takes time for the profits to increase rapidly or substantially.
*Later, environmental protection. The current situation of environmental protection in China is becoming more and more strict. Only by improving the environmental protection equipment and production technology, can smelters reduce the pressure from environmental protection, otherwise they will not be able to make any changes.
From this point of view, in the short term, the domestic smelter capacity cannot be released and will last until at least the third quarter of this year; In the long run, the output of smelters is expected to increase, but the overall increase is still not significant because the new capacity of domestic smelters is still limited in recent two years.
In the general direction, at least until the third quarter of this year, the current grip will continue. In the long run, the output is expected to grow. However, the increase in output in recent years is still limited, so the overall situation is still not optimistic!
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